The NBA Picks Its Prediction Market Partners
The NBA just picked its prediction market partners. On Monday, October 26, the league announced a three-part package:
- A memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)
- A “Preferred Prediction Market Exchange” title for both Kalshi and Polymarket
- A wider deal with DraftKings
Kalshi and Polymarket can now use NBA marks and run marketing campaigns across U.S. media. They also get official NBA data from Sportradar, the league’s data distribution partner, to run and settle NBA markets.
DraftKings gets a bigger slice too. Its existing NBA deal now covers prediction markets and nationwide promotion.
More names are on the way. The league plans to expand deals with other partners “in the coming weeks,” and SBC Americas reported that FanDuel is among them.
For crypto readers, Polymarket is the headline. A crypto-native trading platform now holds preferred status with one of the world’s biggest sports leagues.
What the CFTC Deal Actually Says
The MOU is a cooperation and information-sharing pact. Not a rulebook.
iGaming Business reviewed the five-page document and reported that it isn’t legally binding. Neither side has to share anything.
Any sharing happens at each party’s “sole discretion,” mostly through informal talks, periodic meetings, and written requests.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig welcomed it anyway. He said the NBA is “taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity,” according to SBC Americas.
The NBA is now the third major U.S. league to sign one of these MOUs, The Block noted. Major League Baseball went first on March 19, in what Selig called the first MOU between a sports league and a federal agency, Covers reported.
The NHL followed on May 21.
The Integrity Rules Behind the Deal
Integrity sits at the heart of the NBA’s pitch. “Protecting the integrity of the game is our top priority,” said Scott Kaufman-Ross, the league’s head of media distribution and partnerships.
The framework rests on three protections:
- Limits on markets. Partners can list only the NBA markets the league allows.
- Insider ban. League and team personnel can’t trade NBA event contracts.
- Information sharing. Operators must share details on investigations and suspicious trading.
The league says these rules mirror its latest sportsbook restrictions. Before this season, it barred its sportsbook partners from offering some bets, iGaming Business reported.
Off the board: bets on the tip-off winner, specific-shot bets, and “under” props on players expected to play fewer than 12 minutes.
The caution has history behind it. In 2024, the NBA banned Jontay Porter for life over gambling violations.
Now the league has a second venue to watch, one where fans can bet on how games play out.
The NFL Is Taking the Other Side
Not every league buys this approach. The NFL is the only major U.S. league without a commercial deal with the prediction market industry, according to SBC Americas.
On October 8, the NFL filed a brief with the U.S. Supreme Court supporting New Jersey’s request that the Court decide which authority regulates these markets.
As the Associated Press reported, it argues that sports event contracts are gambling and that states should oversee them.
The brief put hard numbers on the stakes. On the first Sunday of this NFL season, it said, the league accounted for $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets.
That’s more than half. The NFL also asked the CFTC to publish a list of banned wagers and to raise the minimum trading age from 18 to 21.
The CFTC fired back. A CFTC spokeswoman told the AP that the NFL declined to sign an MOU that would have allowed information sharing.
The Legal Fight Is Still Open
None of this settles the bigger question. Who actually regulates sports event contracts?
The CFTC says most prediction market contracts fall under its exclusive federal jurisdiction. Many states disagree.
Roughly 20 states are litigating over prediction markets, according to the AP. And the courts are split.
The Sixth and Ninth Circuit appeals courts have ruled for the states, while the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi earlier this year. A brief led by Ohio and backed by 38 states asks the Supreme Court to side with New Jersey.
Then there’s capacity. The CFTC currently has one sitting commissioner, Selig, iGaming Business noted.
The NFL’s brief adds another figure: the agency has 543 employees covering all derivatives markets, not just event contracts.
By signing with the CFTC, the NBA has effectively picked the federal route. A Supreme Court ruling could still rewrite the rules for every league and every operator.
What Investors Should Watch
The deal pulls prediction markets into mainstream sports. The legal questions? Still wide open.
Four things to track:
- The Supreme Court. If the Court takes the New Jersey case and sides with the states, sports contracts could face state gaming laws and taxes. A ruling for federal oversight would strengthen the CFTC model the NBA just joined.
- How much the MOU really does. Sharing is voluntary. The real test: does it help catch suspicious trading on game nights?
- Who joins next. Watch for FanDuel and other operators. And for any shift in the NFL’s stance.
- Where the money sits. Kalshi and Polymarket are private companies. DraftKings is the one publicly traded company named in the NBA’s announcement, and prediction markets are only part of its business.
The league disclosed no financial terms for any of the deals. It did show a major league choosing federal regulators and licensed exchanges over sitting on the sidelines.
Whether that model holds depends on courts that haven’t ruled yet.
For more on how the CFTC is shaping crypto markets, read our breakdown of the agency’s leverage rules for crypto trading.
Sources
- NBA establishes integrity framework and commercial partnerships for prediction markets, NBA
- NBA becomes third league to sign CFTC prediction market pact, taps Kalshi and Polymarket, The Block
- NBA Partners Prediction Market Operators, Signs CFTC MOU, SBC Americas
- NBA signs MOU with CFTC and partners with prediction markets, iGaming Business
- MLB Partners with Polymarket, Signs Unprecedented Agreement with CFTC, Covers
- CFTC and National Hockey League Sign MOU Related to Integrity in Professional Hockey, CFTC
- NFL urges the Supreme Court to rule on regulation of prediction markets, Associated Press
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